PREDICTIONS VP Contest

Okay you watch all the political shows and you spend too much time on MYDD. (Impossible) You are a political Guru!
.
So now it's time to stand up and be counted!

This isn't about who you want to win but rather WHY and WHO you think WILL win the VP spots for McCain and Obama.

The winner will receive nothing as usual except the prestige of saying I TOLD YOU SO!  (Please let it be me)

I will publish the winner's name once we know. If someone picks the same running mate then we will examine the second part of the question WHY and see who came closest to Obama's and McCain's explanation. If more than one person answers the WHY question the same way then I will judge them on how many times they Rec my diaries.


Poll
Will Obama and McCain surprise us?
McCain YES
McCain NO
OBAMA YES
OBAMA NO

Votes: 32
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Clinton because she offers Obama the best chance of winning the White House. Energy and excitement create votes. Strong ideas that compliment Obama's
Ready on Day 1 Team of rivals meme.

Romney because he has a business background. Photogenic and Vetted.

I win!


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:06:02 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

It would not be wise to pick Hillary. I've changed my mind about this, she and her supporters would only make trouble for the campaign.


Killing me softly with his song
by Miles Outlandish on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 10:10:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

What incident or situation caused you to change your mind Miles?


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 10:16:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Probably being a fake poster helped.


by Cincinnatus on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 11:22:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

That's possible!


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 11:29:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Those darn Clintons (none / 0)

and their darn supporters.  Such troublemakers!  


by Radiowalla on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 11:44:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Bayh   -  Obama

Romney -  Mccain .

Bayh might be able to deliver Indiana , is in the clinton camp , brings some degree of sanity on national security to the ticket and doesn't really dilute the change message .

Plus I like where he is on the ideological scale so what the hell.

Mccain would go with Romney , he might push Mccain over the hump in CO , NV and MI , energizes the conservative base of the republican party like no one else , is vetted and has the uncanny ability of going after Obama without losing any of the grease in his hair . Furthermore he brings credibility on the economic front .

Wild Card for Obama : Joe Biden

Wild card for Mccain : Bobby Jindal


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:21:22 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

"brings some degree of sanity on national security to the ticket"

Sanity??  I had no idea our nominee was lacking sanity on national security.

DLC Bayh isn't nearly as bad a choice as Clinton, but it kinda guts the change message, Bayh having been a card carrying member of the corporate wing (part of the problem) and having beaten the Iraq invasion drum pretty vigorously.  Bleh.

I have no idea who Obama will pick, other than definitely not picking Hillary.  He seems to have sealed up the process tighter than a drum.  I'm hoping for Clark.

McCain can pick Jesus Christ himself, he's still going down, hard.  


by ReillyDiefenbach on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:35:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Its a figure of speech .

As far as I am concerned Obama has very little idea of what he is talking about on national security , Bayh helps in that department , at least somewhat.. .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:40:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

I get the sense you might have an idea who would have been a better nominee for national security.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:46:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Clinton , Biden  , Webb these are all people I have great admiration for on national security matters.

It is just a reality .

I have the feeling he would choose a candidate that shores up that weakness , thats why Kaine isn't going to be the choice.  


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:53:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

why? (none / 0)

none of them have been particularly impressive on the issues.


by JJE on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:25:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Lori (none / 0)

thinks threatening Iran with annihilation is a good thing.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:28:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lori (none / 0)

Ah, now I get it :^)


by ReillyDiefenbach on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 09:47:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lori (2.00 / 1)

Why do Obama supporters (Clinton haters) continue this line of attack when recently Obama himself said that nothing is off the table when it comes to Iran?


Hell's bells, even the GOP didn't have to crucify Eisenhower's record in order to make Reagan their 'saint'. We can have two great ones, you know?
by emsprater on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 11:43:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It wasn't an attack (none / 0)

it was meant to explain why Lori would think someone who's hawkish on national security is a good person on that issue. She thinks differently than some. What one may think is not impressive is to Lori.

Just pointing out that not everyone thinks the same here.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 10:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: why? (none / 0)

So who would you choose if you had to?


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:30:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: why? (none / 0)

Clinton .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:43:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton is the obvious choice (2.00 / 1)

for electoral reasons.

If personalities and staff friction won't allow Clinton, then Clark, then Biden.  I doubt Kaine and Bayh can deliver their states, they aren't national figures, and they don't really bring anything else.


by JJE on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:48:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: why? (1.00 / 1)

Obama will pick Bayh because of Indiana and because he THINKS that will placate the Clinton supporters-wrong on both counts. As I said yesterday Rush Limbaugh will then start the chorus of Bye/Obama.

McCain wants to pick Ridge but will settle for Romney.


by handsomegent on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 07:00:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: why? (none / 0)

Handsomegent I have forgotten who you are picking as VP. Anyhow what do you think of Clark? I didn't realize he had a masters in Economics.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 07:49:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: why? (none / 0)

I love Clark.  My dream was Clinton/Clark.  It does have a nice ring to it.


by handsomegent on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 10:36:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: why? (none / 0)

Yes it does sound good. What an interesting combination. Thanks


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 11:23:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: why? (none / 0)

Reagan would disagree with you on Jim Webb .

 - Assistant Secretary of Defense , Secretary of the Navy .

Biden has been dealing with international issues for decades.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:42:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He would (none / 0)

but I would disagree with Reagan on a lot of things.

Biden does have a lot of experience, but I don't see him as particularly prescient or visionary.


by JJE on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:55:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Clinton had surrounded herself with all the old "muscular" foreign policy types such as Albright and Holbrooke.  "What's the sense of having this superb military if you can't use it?"
Thank goodness we had the sense not to nominate her.
by ReillyDiefenbach on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 09:55:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bill belonged to DLC not Hillary? (none / 0)

If you don't know she was against NAFTA and always tried to push her husband to the left some times unsucessfully. You may not want to believe this because you want to believe the campaign hype!


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 07:31:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bill belonged to DLC not Hillary? (none / 0)

News flash:

DLC | Press Release | July 25, 2005
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Accepts Position as Chair of the DLC's 'American Dream Initiative'

For Immediate Release

Contact: Tammy Sun
(202) 546-0007, tsun@dlc.org

COLUMBUS, OHIO -- DLC Chair Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack announced today, Monday July 25th, that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) will Chair the American Dream Initiative, a special project of the Democratic Leadership Council."


by ReillyDiefenbach on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 09:50:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Yea Bayh being connected to Clinton has caught my attention too.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:41:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Lori do you consider Obama naturally cautious or
bold? I'm still trying to figure him out. Will he be Practical on his way to winning the White House and then Bold once he has "control".

P.S. Anyone can join in.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:17:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 2)

Its hard to figure him out .

But I have always thought of him as a consensus type of  politician , he is aligned with the typical liberal orthodoxy like other mainline national democrats no doubt .

Looking at his senate career he seemed to actually follow the model of non other than Hillary Clinton at least in the little time he has spent in the senate .

Its hard to know what he would do but he seems like someone who would seek a consensus on issues no matter how big or small rather than follow an ideological pattern.

In other words he is not a movement liberal.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:33:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Thanks for the reply.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:44:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bath doesn't dilute "change?" (none / 0)


by Thaddeus on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:37:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Obama/Clark

McCain/Giuliani

... Although I expect favorable odds on this, since I'm going against the conventional wisdom.


by Dumbo on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:24:55 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Giuliani, eh?  He went down in flames, though.  Couldn't even make a dent in Florida, which is about half New Yorkers.  "A noun, a verb and 9/11"  R.I.P.
Maybe Pawlenty, whoever the hell he is?
by ReillyDiefenbach on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:41:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Favorable Odds for you. We might be considered
"Buds" Okay I will do it anyhow. Giuliani yes that pick deserves favorable odds.
by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:57:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Why Giuliani?


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:59:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I heard Bill Bennet say (2.00 / 2)

something on CNN tonight that resonated.  He siad that he thought McCain was more likely to pick a shocker than Obama.  And this is mostly intuition here, but I think he's right.

But if you want logical reasons, consider this:  The Republicans think they're likely to lose anyway.  That may make them feel bold enough to select a shocker, based on the theory, "We're screwed anyway, let's go out in a blaze of glory!"   And Giuliani, for incomprehensible reasons, has a "good on foreign policy" rep.  

Furthermore, despite all the primary season in-fighting, McCain and Giuliani are long-time friends.  (So is Ridge, another good longshot pick).  McCain and Romney?  Not exactly best friends.  If I were going to go out in a blaze of glory, like Butch and Sundance, I'd want somebody I liked at my back.  I would use this as my last opportunity to tell all the Republicans that wouldn't back me, "Well, FUCK YOU TOO."

Another possible pick that doesn't seem to get enough consideration: Carly Fiorino.  It tries to play on the "disgruntled dead-ender" vote. And Carly Fiorino would make a devastating attack dog.


by Dumbo on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:28:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I heard Bill Bennet say (none / 0)

I understand what you are saying. McCain might try to get his Maverick image back and say " I did it my way" In other words Fuck you let's see what happens. Makes sense.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:37:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I heard Bill Bennet say (2.00 / 1)

That wasn't Bill Bennett who said that, it was James Carville.  Bennett said he thinks McCain will pick Romney.


No Way. No How. No McCain.
by Denny Crane on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:07:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Barack Obama-Wesley Clark

John McCain-Tom Ridge


by Will Graham on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:31:14 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Hell would freeze over first before Mccain picks Ridge .

If he picks Ridge he can kiss the election goodbye .

His base would revolt.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:35:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 2)

Did you read McCain's recent comments about how the Republican Party should be open to pro-choice folks?  I think he may have been floating a trial balloon to see if he could get away with picking his friend, Tom Ridge, as VP.  I have a feeling that's who he really wants.  


by Will Graham on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:41:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Yes I did hear that and I also heard  Hukabee  say that wouldn't be a good idea because Ridge is pro choice.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:49:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

I think Huck will come aboard with anyone not named "Romney."  He knows Ridge can't get the nomination in 2012, and sees Romney as a much bigger threat in four years (possibly the biggest threat to Huck's chances): best to keep Romney out of the picture and stay mostly mum about anyone who could be swept aside later.


by Jay R on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 03:53:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

I see what you're saying. I don't trust any of them especially Huck.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 05:03:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Did you see the reaction he got .

The poor guy was ripped to shreds on talk radio and in the christian conservative circles .

All day on talk radio , Mccain was being ripped .

That trial ballon blew up in a second.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:49:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

I wish I could hear Clark speak more often. I heard him speak once and he was very convincing and very smooth.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:44:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

He's almost always the smartest person in the room.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:51:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

I wouldn't doubt it at all.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:07:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Thanks for all the Recommendations. Remember you can't win if don't recommend. It's not fair I know! Ha Ha


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:09:32 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

McCain = Romney
Obama = Clark
That One is the Right One for 2008.
by GFORD on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:28:33 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Clark is more popular than I thought judging from the response. Cheers


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 01:50:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (1.66 / 3)

You already know who I'm gonna say....

H I L L A R Y....

She brings MILLIONS of votes (which no other candidate does).

She may even secure SOME states like NV, OH, PA (for sure), and even FL....possibly AR....

She IS change - NEVER BEEN A WOMAN VP BEFORE...THAT...is TRUE change....

Biden looks good as an old white male, but brings NO votes considering he garnered about 2-5% in the primary.

Bayh - maybe Indiana - why does everyone say "he's clinton" - just because he supported her - HE WILL NOT BRING HER VOTERS (like me)....

Clark - looks good (like Biden) as a white male with military - but again, NO STATE, NO VOTES....

I've heard John Kerry thrown around - one elitist after another....big mistake (imho)....

I've heard Richardson....he's a disaster at debates, sweats too much..will piss off the hillary people...

CAN-NOT pick another woman other than hillary....

Kaine for the "change" people and maybe VA....women will be pissed.

I predict that if Obama picks a typical white male..

McCain will be BOLD and go for Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska and/or Carly Fioroni (?) and pick up the ANGRY WOMEN HILLARY SUPPORTERS....

Again - the NUMBER of Hillary HOLD OUT's is anywhere from 3 - 5 million votes - that is bigger than the christian coalition!!!

Whoever secures these votes - WINS....

Who can GUARANTEE THESE VOTES? HILLARY.

If he picks her - he proves that he a.) wants to win and b.) wants party unity....

The MSM loves playing up that there's a BIG FIGHT between him and Bill....but I don't believe it..

I think if BO picks Hillary, then McCain will jump to his base and pick Romny....and BTW - the BEST debator that BO could have on his team as an attack dog (especially against Romney who is NASTY AS HELL) IS HILLARY.....

She will nail his ass to the wall when he goes after her on "Hillary Care"...she will go after him on the shitty job he's done in MA with their half ass healthcare....


by nikkid on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:09:22 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Ha Ha I'm so "surprised" Nikkid.  Okay you win!

PS well put and the passion wow! You have convinced me. Ha Ha


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:27:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Actually if Obama needs an "attack dog"  I vote
Nikkid.
by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:32:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Jeebus, why do you hate paragraphs so much?  What did they ever do to you?


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 03:27:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

I know I need some help don't I  My next Diary will be better. Forgive me.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 05:06:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Sorry PS, this comment wasn't directed at you.  :)


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 08:49:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Well maybe it should have been. Ha ha Cheers


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 09:59:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Of course he can pick another woman other than Hillary.
Stop playing politics.
There are many women that are just as or more qualified for the spot.  
by broncoelway on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:10:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Al. Gore.

Doesn't have a speaking spot scheduled, does he?


Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!
by John in Chicago on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:29:45 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Yes that't true and he would be a hell of a surprise and I guess he would bring in a lot of votes. What would be the reaction? I agree the excitement and energy and the eight years experience in the White House would be attractive. Is he change though? Does that matter?


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:37:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Well, at the least, Gore is proof that change can happen. He is a much different politician than he was in 2000.


Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!
by John in Chicago on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:54:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 0)

I agree with you. I think he is much stronger than before and a Nobel prize doesn't hurt either.
Cheers.
by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 05:10:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It will be.. (none / 0)

Obama/Bayh, and I think McCain will probably pick someone out of left field (what does he have to lose?) Either that or Romney, if he folds to the rest of the GOP.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:33:17 AM EST

Re: It will be.. (none / 0)

I agree McCain may be tempted to really surprise us. Thanks zcflint05


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:41:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Obama/Clinton.
McCain/Crist.
allprogressives.com
by Scan on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:34:02 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

You may be right. I'm thinking that the Repugs want a complete reformation and reallegiance to their old standards. They aren't going to get it with McCain but a young conservative pro-life Jew from Virginia might be it. Then again, they might settle for Crist to have an older person in the just in case VP slot. Crist is really what the other split of the Repugs want to move towards considering themselves. Either way, the pugs lose a lot of the independents and the Dems rally around Obama/Clinton even more so than they are already rallying around Obama.


by Jeter on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 04:11:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Quite a few have mentioned Crist. Did he just get married?


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 05:13:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

I can't respond to this without being snarky. Snarky is so last July.


by Jeter on Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 02:22:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Neither of your picks have snowballs chance in hell.


by broncoelway on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

What about the "REAL DREAM TEAM"  OBAMA/PEROT 08
"Money you can believe in"
by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:43:11 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Obama - I'm starting to believe it may be Clark.

Clark helps seal the deal for Obama by calming concerns about his inexperience, yet he doesn't undermine a change campaign the way someone like Bayh or Biden would.  I don't get the Kaine boomlet, at all - 3rd best choice from Viginia, no longer even popular there, doesn't bring any valuable experience.  The potential shocker: Schweitzer.

McCain - Kay Bailey Hutchinson

He needs a game changer, yet someone who won't piss off the conservatives.  He gets to claim history and gives himself a theoretical chance to mitigate the gender gap.  

I don't get Romney - it's too late for pre-convention money and the evangelicals won't like it.  Jindal is too young, and McCain needs racist votes.  The boring, safe choices would Graham, Sanford, or Pawlenty.


by danielj on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:57:24 AM EST

omfg (none / 0)

Having Kay Bailey Hutchison to kick around would re-energize me.


by Mobar on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:19:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OKay, I'll play (none / 0)

McCain will pick a darling of the social conservatives who is far more loved than Romney at this point. He will be thinking of jump starting the Republican Party while serving out just four years. Then his VP pick, Eric Cantor (R-Virginia),  who is 100% pro-life, Jewish, and very conservative runs in 2012. The problem is that Obama will be the incumbent in 2004, and he and his VP will win a second term. The right wing extremists are already calling the upcoming convention the Obama/Clinton convention to be spiteful. But that's the ticket that will come out of the convention. Look for Clinton to firmly denounce McCain, and Obama to appeal to Cantor's detractors, who won't like McCain either but be satisfied with Obama.  


by Jeter on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 03:48:48 AM EST

Re: OKay, I'll play (none / 0)

Thanks for playing Jeter. You could be the one saying " I told you so"  and I know you have Rec my diaries in the past so that goes a long way with me. Ha Ha


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 05:21:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Okay, here goes:

Obama/Sebelius
McCain/Pawlenty

Pawlenty is an easier sell: he shores up McCain with the far-right (guns and abortion), and more importantly, he's someone who will be around for decades, giving McCain a chance to create a lasting legacy through him and ensure his supporters remain prominent, if not dominant, in Republican politics.

Sebelius is someone who can campaign well with Obama (won't overshadow, gets along well with him, plays to different audiences, reinforces Midwestern roots, has Michigan AND Ohio connections), and as she's unlikely to ever run herself if the ticket wins in Nov., she's someone whom Obama won't have to worry about protecting when it comes to tough policy decisions.  And, of course, there's the historic aspect of having a woman as Vice-President, but I really see that as a secondary concern.


by Jay R on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 04:14:10 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Jay R ...Well written , Good paragraphs, Logical,
Too good so we have to disqualify you. When I say we I mean the Royal we. But I could change my mind.
In fact I already have. Pawlenty could be the "future" candidate. I think you are right on about him. Sebelius doesn't bring enough but what do I know?
by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 05:29:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

We have to remember common sense, too.  Can you imagine the bad press Obama would receive by choosing "another woman."


by mjc888 on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 03:39:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Question: Who would be the VERY FIRST person to go on national television and applaud such a move?

Answer: HILLARY CLINTON.

There is going to be a mini-crisis about any pick he makes, but the controversy that would come from picking Sebelius would have to be generated in the face of Hilary publicly and loudly praising the move (which she undoubtedly would: can you imagine the backlash she'd face if she didn't?).  There would be a parade of pundits saying that "in private conversations, Hillary staffers are expressing anger" but that would all be contextualized with HRC's open support.

I don't think the "outrage factor" would really be so high with a Sebelius pick.


by Jay R on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 07:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Yes Senator Clinton would be the first. I have no
doubt about that. I would be shocked if Obama chose "another woman" though. Thanks Jay R
by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 08:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It has been (2.00 / 1)

my opinion from day one that Sebelius was a good choice for any nominee. The only problem with a Clinton/Sebelius ticket is that it was two women.

But if the tables were turned and Clinton was looking for an Obama supporter to put on the ticket, I'd hope Sebelius would be considered.

I support Sebelius not because she's a woman but because she's a successful liberal governor of a historically red state. Sebelius has a history of winning votes Democrats don't usually win. There's got to be something there.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 10:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It has been (none / 0)

It sounds like she is a unique person. I will have to google her.


by Politicalslave on Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 04:23:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Does anyone think Lieberman has a chance as McCain's VP. He is starting to be mentioned more
and more as a possibility.

I've noticed as well Clinton is not even being considered by some media experts.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 06:48:35 AM EST

Dick Morris is predicting Lieberman (2.00 / 2)

and I think he's as saavy a political consultant as they come (if he could just be a little less repulsive!) He makes the point that Lieberman plays to McCain's narrative of ending partisan gridlock, reaching across the aisle, and all the rest of that bs. It would be a dramatic move, the first time since Lincoln that a candidate selected a running mate from the opposite party.

Romney makes sense on paper...but bottom line, McCain dislikes him intensely, and I can't see him swallowing his feelings to make that move. Ronald Reagan was easy-going, supremely confident, and thus was able to be pragmatic and choose a former opponent as his running mate. Say what you want about Reagan, he was never petty in the way that McCain can be....nobody has ever carried a grudge like McCain, save maybe Nixon.

That said, I go with Lieberman or Ridge. Remember one thing: with his military background, loyalty is everything to McCain.


by BJJ Fighter on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:38:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dick Morris is predicting Lieberman (2.00 / 2)

Thank you for your reply. I enjoyed reading it.
Your point about loyalty and McCain not being able
to forget the fight with Romney makes sense.
Lieberman makes me sick. Mojo to you BJJFighter
by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 07:59:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dick Morris is predicting Lieberman (none / 0)

Thanks, Polslave; appreciate the feedback. My final choices:

McCain-Lieberman
Obama-Bayh


by BJJ Fighter on Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 03:50:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dick Morris is predicting Lieberman (none / 0)

We will soon find out. Thanks BJJ Fighter


by Politicalslave on Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 10:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Obama/Biden

vs.

McCain/Romney


Take out the trash. Down with Saxby Chambliss!
by CLLGADEM on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 07:28:08 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

You could be dead on in both cases. I wouldn't be shocked.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 08:00:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

You are the winner CLLGADEM. Way to go


by Politicalslave on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 08:48:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

We'll see later today if it's 2 for 2.  Thanks!


Take out the trash. Down with Saxby Chambliss!
by CLLGADEM on Fri Aug 29, 2008 at 07:21:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Obama / Clark

McCain / Ridge

No reasons, just gut feelings.

Maybe I should lay off the beans.


Hell's bells, even the GOP didn't have to crucify Eisenhower's record in order to make Reagan their 'saint'. We can have two great ones, you know?
by emsprater on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 11:52:47 AM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

You may be right despite the beans.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 08:00:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (2.00 / 1)

Both will pick "surprises".

Obama will choose Governor Schweitzer of Montana, a guy who is considered a maverick in his own sense. He's a regular guy, one who can connect with Middle America. He definitely could not be deemed as "elitist". He's an outsider and that fits well with Obama's "change" message.

McCain will choose Governor Palin of Alaska. She shores up his conservative base, being pro-life and pro NRA. She's a female who's athletic and that will appeal to the white male base of the party. She has high approval ratings and is also considered an outsider. She instantly brings the issue of energy to the table, being that she was Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. Then, there's the obvious. She's female and that will help McCain win over the female holdouts who are thinking of sitting out this election in November. If she can just move a slight percentage to his column, he wins. He already is dominating the white male vote; the white females are still up in the air and Gov. Palin can help move them to his side.


by yogi41 on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:13:40 PM EST

I agree with you on Palin (none / 0)

Only negative at this point could be that she's being investigated for some minor scandal, involving firing her ex-brother-in-law, who had abused her sister, etc. It sounded like basic soap opera stuff that won't amount to much. But the positives--which you summarize pretty well--are substantial.

That said, I've listened to her a few times on Kudlow & Company, and I think she could easily turn into another Dan Quayle for the repubs. She's not very polished, and sounds like someone you'd hear at a PTA meeting, not a candidate vying for national office. I just have a feeling we should hope that McCain chooses her; he'd have to spend a lot of time cleaning up after her, and would eventually just banish her to ANWR....

I can't buy into the Schweitzer idea; it doesn't make sense to me to double-down on Obama's inexperience and outsider reputation. The excitement/charisma/newness is already there at the top of the ticket; Obama should fill in the #2 slot with a boring, experienced white guy from DC......Biden, Bayh, or Reed. Take your pick.


by BJJ Fighter on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 12:59:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It will be... (2.00 / 1)

Obama will pick Wesley Clark since he has been vetted, is a Clinton supporter, hasn't been in Washington too long, and has way more real foreign policy experience than little John McBush can ever dream of having.  

McCain will pick Tim Pawlenty from MN.  He is young, very conservative, a governor, actually has decent environmental policy, and might be able to deliver Minnesota and some surrounding states to Old John.  


by broncoelway on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:04:51 PM EST

Re: It will be... (2.00 / 1)

Oh, and second most likely is:

Obama/Biden
and
McCain/Mittens (Romney)


by broncoelway on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 02:06:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It will be... (none / 0)

"classic choices" broncoelway. I wouldn't be surprised at all.


by Politicalslave on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 08:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sebelius and Lieberman (2.00 / 1)

I have never had less of an idea about running mates than this year. The list of possible Obama running mates seems to be in double figures, which is amazing to me, and McCain's list of possibles is not much smaller.

I think too much of a shocker is unlikely and not a good idea, as it seems impulsive and too far out of the box.  A good number of candidates have been publicly vetted via trial balloons and that's just as important as the more private vetting by selection teams.  In some ways it is disrespectful to the party faithful and general public to just pick someone out of nowhere at the last minute.

Wesley Clark at this point would constitute an excessive amount of red herrings and double inversions.  Selecting a VP isn't a game.  Kaine, Bayh and Biden have been floated the most and I think the response has been less than enthusiastic for very different reasons.  I think the Obama team became more serious about a second set of names and a repechage list: Sebelius, Schweitzer,
Clinton, Kerry.

Clinton makes the most sense in terms of victory but I believe the discomfort is genuine.  I think anytime the primary race is that close that it makes sense to make the runner-up the VP and I think Obama should do that.

I don't think he will (or has).  Kerry has been a good surrogate and would have to be a better campaigner this time around.  Kerry also made Obama's campaign possible in many ways.  He has the military experience, foreign policy cred.  And I don't think he's be uncomfortable as #2--he'd probably be more comfortable.

Sebelius for obvious gender reasons--and that's huge.  I don't buy the "no woman but Hillary argument."  She is a successful governor, has shown guts in decision-making, is West of the river, and bring s the excitement of possible big change.

Schweitzer because of change, personality, excitement, West, governor, and international experience on the ground.  Breath of fresh air redux.

Clinton is too risky because of threat of overshadowing (and Bubba).  Schweitzer too unknown and doesn't bring gender.

Down to Sebelius or Kerry.  Still a bit too weird
to have a former nominee as running-mate just four years later.  

Sebelius.

McCain-Lieberman.  Why not?  Is the Christian right likely to vote for Obama?  No.  Stay home?  Maybe, but that's only 1/2 vote lost.  The election is about those who will almost certainly vote, one way or another.  McCain-Lieberman is the ultimate "maverick/bipartisan" reinforcing move and will appeal to independents and the millions of voters who need a good reason not to vote for Obama.

 


by Thaddeus on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 03:00:24 PM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Hillary.

The roll call on Wednesday will lead into her VP nomination that night.

- Matt


by mjc888 on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 03:37:40 PM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

I think you're right. Much as I hate the idea and think it is a disaster for Obama, there is no other choice that isn't a non-entity except Clark and the campaign staff and/or Obama hate him. Gore does not want another 16 years as VP. Schweitzer is not telegenic. Hillary supporters will not accept any other woman. Biden and Bayh have no following and no charisma. It's Clinton or Clark, and it won't be Clark.

BTW, don't be surprised to see HRC win that role call and dissolve the Party into a hate-fest between it's two biggest blocs, blacks and women.


by antiHyde on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 06:49:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As if she would accept the nomination (2.00 / 1)

If Clinton is nominated at the convention, there is no way she would win in November. She's get slaughtered by McCain.

She would never allow herself to lose a general election. Democrats throw general election losers away. Her career would be over. She would not let herself go down that way.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 10:21:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As if she would accept the nomination (none / 0)

"Throw their losers away", which is an argument against Kerry.


by antiHyde on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:29:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

Hillary Clinton


The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman
by pollbuster on Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 09:47:57 PM EST

Re: PREDICTIONS VP Contest (none / 0)

I think you are right on Pollbuster. Cheers


by Politicalslave on Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 11:42:33 PM EST


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