NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations

Yikes. This narrative has been playing out for much of the past week in the terrifying corridors of the right wing, but to see it land on the front page of today's New York Times is very worrisome. McCain's already making significant movement in both the national and state polls within the past couple of days. If this becomes the new CW, I think we're in for some big trouble.

For the last several days, Senator Barack Obama has seemed to fade from the scene while on his secluded vacation here, as his opponent, Senator John McCain, has seized nearly every opportunity to display his foreign policy credentials on the dominant issue of the week: the conflict between Russia and Georgia.

Only once, at the beginning of the week, did Mr. Obama discuss the fighting in public, when he emerged from his beachfront rental home to condemn Russia's escalation, in a way that seemed timed for the evening television news. He took no questions whose answers might demonstrate command of the issue. [ --- Wow!]

Mr. McCain and his surrogates, however, have discussed the situation nearly every day on the campaign trail, often taking a hard line against Russia to the point of his declaring the other day, "We are all Georgians."

It is as if the candidates' images have been reversed within a matter of a few weeks. When Mr. Obama was overseas last month, Mr. McCain's foreign policy bona fides seemed diminished, if only because he could not attract the news media attention received by Mr. Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Now, Mr. Obama's voice seems muted at a time when much of the world has been worriedly watching the conflict.

A spokesman said that Mr. Obama had interrupted his vacation several times to get updates on the situation in the Caucasus and that he had been in "constant contact" with his national security advisers. He has spoken to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, as well as former Senator Sam Nunn, Democrat of Georgia; Senator Richard G. Lugar, Republican of Indiana; and former Defense Secretary William J. Perry.

For his part, Mr. McCain has fielded questions daily, batting back criticism that his tough stance is reminiscent of the language of the cold war. On the other hand, the fluency with which Mr. McCain, the presumed Republican presidential nominee, discusses Georgia, citing the history of the region and the number of times he has visited, lends an aura of commander in chief. And as if he already had a cabinet, Mr. McCain said he was dispatching his allies Senators Joseph I. Lieberman, independent of Connecticut, and Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, to the region.



Display:


Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

If Obama was acting as McCain is now, he would be called presumptuous and arrogant. The New York Times, sadly, has proven it is not a great paper. The good thing is conservatives completely disregard it, unless it is one of their columnists writing.


by Lolis on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 09:39:43 AM EST

Another point of View (2.00 / 1)

from Andrew Sullivan

His position on Georgia makes much more sense if you see it in this context.

In his own narrative, he is always the one man who kept the faith while so many lost theirs. Only McCain had the courage to champion Petraeus; only McCain was in intimate contact with Saakashvili before most others had even heard of him; only McCain can rescue Iraq; only McCain will defeat Iran and Russia and China, because only McCain has the moral clarity to see them as the evil they are, and only McCain has the balls to defend the weak and the defenseless (unless, of course, the CIA has them in a locked, dark cell).

That the world and America might need other virtues in the current global context does not occur to him. That these often admirably intentioned crusades might require more prudential reasoning, restrained caution and delicate diplomacy is not in his play-book. What Americans have to decide is whether, after the last seven years, this kind of with-us-or-against-us crusade against enemies near and far is the right approach to the current crisis. or whether it is part of the reason we are already in so deep.


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 09:41:28 AM EST

Re: Another point of View (2.00 / 1)

I don't usually like Andrew Sullivan but this seems spot on.

My confidence that America will make the right choice, however, is not particularly high.

The more this election is about foreign policy, the worse our chances; the more its about the economy and domestic policy, the better our chances.


John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."
by Fuzzy Dunlop on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:12:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another point of View (2.00 / 1)

Yeah because the Republicans have done such a great job with foreign policy. Your comment was snark, right??


by venician on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't think that people care (2.00 / 0)

the conventions are coming up.


by puma on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 09:43:31 AM EST

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

I honestly don't understand how meeting with Iraqi and European leaders is presumptuous on the one hand and cribbing notes from Wikipedia, while getting advice from a Georgian lobbyist and sending two stooges to investigate is leadership on the other.


by rfahey22 on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 09:46:19 AM EST

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (2.00 / 3)

Because the average American voter is none to bright?


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 09:51:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

so what? (none / 0)

Who cares? There's zero evidence that voters try to follow the leader. If that had been true, Roosevelt would have lost in 1936 and Truman in 1948.

And if it affects news coverage by making things seem tighter than they are, well, that's good because it motivates the Obama side to do the work of registering voters and getting out the vote -- which is what we ALL should be doing.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:00:54 AM EST

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (2.00 / 3)

Good Grief! Not ANOTHER chicken little diary.


by venician on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:06:03 AM EST

Odd definition of "front page" (2.00 / 2)

Scrolling down, down, down...

A version of this article appeared in print on August 15, 2008, on page A15 of the New York edition.

Page A15.  In the Politics section.

Unless you were referring to the front page of the website?  Well, I suppose it's technically on the front page, but you'd have to scroll 2/3 of the way down the page and break out the magnifying glass to notice it:

Just because this obscure political editorial is front-page news at Alegre's spot does not mean it's front-page news anywhere else.


Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics
by BishopRook on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:17:32 AM EST

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (2.00 / 1)

There is a significant movement in the polls away from Obama for a very simple reason that should be obvious.  He is not generating enough support from registered Democrats while McCain is pulling in the high 80's among Republicans.  McCain is winning white women over 40 by 4 points, a demo that most recent Dems have carried by double digits.


by handsomegent on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:19:58 AM EST

Hmmmm (2.00 / 2)

McCain is winning white women over 40 by 4 points, a demo that most recent Dems have carried by double digits.

From recent Gallup poll:

The slightly weaker position for McCain vis-à-vis Obama among whites is not a major shift, but does represent a loss for McCain compared to his fellow Republican's performance among whites in 2004.

The data reviewed here show that the explanation lies with Obama's stronger showing among white women. Whereas Bush led Kerry by 9 points among white women in 2004, McCain and Obama are now tied among this group. This gain by Obama is partially mitigated by the fact that he does slightly less well among white men than did Kerry, but the net impact of the widening gender gap overall is a gain for Obama among whites.

There has been much talk about Obama's relative problems this year in reaching white men, particularly those with less than a college education. The data reviewed here from early August show that Obama in general does indeed trail McCain significantly among white men, particularly those who have a college degree or less. This white male deficit appears to be slightly larger than it was for Kerry in 2004. But Obama's relative strength among white women, particularly those with postgraduate educations, has to this point more than made up for his deficit among white men.


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:25:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmmm (none / 0)

I said white women over 40.  That's the demo he's losing by 4 points.


by handsomegent on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:36:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmmm (none / 0)

According to a Fox poll! Good grief could we get just a bit more biased.

Also if you recall Kerry lost the white women's vote to Bush.

White women broke for Bush by 10 points in 2004


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:53:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmmm (none / 0)

He's also losing white women over fifty but under sixty who like to knit and own cats, clearly a sign of his weakness as a candidate.


by Cincinnatus on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 11:49:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Insert lolcat pic (none / 0)

 here :^)


by ReillyDiefenbach on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:05:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmmm (none / 0)

Where is your specific evidence that the News dynamis poll is biased?  Anyway you can't refute what I said--that Obama is LOSING  white women over 40-a group that supported Clinton, Gore and Kerry by good margins.


by handsomegent on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmmm (none / 0)

Actually, technically he is not losing that demographic, one poll just has him behind in it. Still I must admit, if the election were open only to women over 40 I might be starting to get worried.


by Cincinnatus on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 01:10:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmmm (none / 0)

No actually I did refute it. Given Kerry lost the white female vote by 10 points this would include your subset. Kerry carried the younger white female vote based on the supposition that he carried unmarried white women. However he lost married white women. So with Obama carrying the younger female vote by a good margin and losing by only 4 today with the older demo stands to reason he could carry the female vote. Also Obama's numbers are current and in no way reflect November. While Kerry was always behind in the female vote as block by a bigger number than he actually lost by.

Biased may have been strong, unreliable might be a better way of putting it. Also they do not track they are snap shot polls. I also cannot see Fox's internals and cross tabs . Also Fox historically has a high margin of error.


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:56:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmmm (2.00 / 1)

Excuse me but to plow through all that, I must repeat Obama is LOSING white females over 40-a demo he should be winning easily. Now he also is polloing only between 76-83% of registered Dems in the internals of the polls I've seen.


by handsomegent on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 06:53:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

"McCain is winning white women over 40 by 4 points, a demo that most recent Dems have carried by double digits."

The margin of error for this kind of statistic in a single poll is really, really high.  Its usually not a good idea to make a big deal of such things.  For example:

Assume 500 respondents
Assume 250 females
Assume 180 white females
Assume 100 white females over 40

You may be dealing with a 100 person sample or less.  The difference between a 4 point lead and a double digit lead may be three respondents within that category picking McCain over Obama.  There's a lot of luck and noise underneath these numbers.


John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."
by Fuzzy Dunlop on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:18:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

Okay, but you can say that about any poll.


by handsomegent on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 01:00:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

No, he's making the point that when you break the polls down demographically the sample size gets smaller and the potential for error gets larger. All polls are not created equal.


by Cincinnatus on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 01:05:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

Really, then why don't the Obamna lovers ever say anything nice about Rasmussen's polls which have rather large samples.  He had a poll of Colorado whereby Obama was winning by 7 points on July 21, and yesterday is losing by 2 points.  You're not too concerned about samples then.


by handsomegent on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:10:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

I don't recall saying anything at all about Rasmussen's polls.


by Cincinnatus on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:13:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

Many others have.


by handsomegent on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

Take that up with them, it has nothing to do with the current discussion.


by Cincinnatus on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (2.00 / 1)

Look, the results are just as legitimate for that poll as any other. Obama is losing white women over the age of 40 in that poll. In many others he's only getting about 78-81% of the Dems-that's his problem.


by handsomegent on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:51:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

The results are just as legitimate but they have a much higher margin of error because the sample size is much smaller.  If you ran a poll of just white women over 40, and had a sample size of several hundred, the margin of error would be lower.

Rasmussen has other problems--for example, their refusal to weight their samples by party identification.  But that's an entirely different issue.

And again, even going with the one poll you cite, Obama is losing white women over 40 by less than Kerry lost all white women in 2004.


Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics
by BishopRook on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 03:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

What do you mean they don't weight their samples by party ID? I saw a recent poll there were they told us the percentages of R, D and I.  I believe he does it based on turnout (among likely voters)in previous elections.  Anyway Rasmussen has a very good track record.


by handsomegent on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 06:43:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

Ah, Rasmussen does weight on party ID.  There's a different polling firm that doesn't, I must have been confusing the two.


Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics
by BishopRook on Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 09:21:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

if this happened a couple of weeks ago (2.00 / 0)

I would have been worried, but I realized that even at this point - when it seems so late in the game for us political hos - the vast majority of the voting public really could give a rat's ass about Georgia. Secondly, how much do you want to bet that if Obama was interrupting his vacation everyday to make a statement that the MSM would say that he's so foreign and unAmerican that he doesn't even enjoy his own vacation!


by highgrade on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:21:29 AM EST

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (2.00 / 0)

No one is paying attention to anyone not named Michael Phelps. Honestly this was a perfect time for vacation. The Olympics is King right now. Chill! But the good news.


by Sylden37 on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 10:25:02 AM EST

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (2.00 / 3)

WOW, the second "Oh MY GOD! Obama took a vacation" diary....

Chicken little indeed, and (suprise) from Rayj.

Dude, save it up, I figure yours is the 3 or 4th

"Clinton NOT the VP" diary in the 33 car pile-up coming when the text message says "Biden" next week....


On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....
by WashStateBlue on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 11:02:30 AM EST

LOL (none / 0)

It'll be yet another sad, sad day for the crystal ball gazers of MyDD when Obama announces our next Vice President.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:03:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NYT: McCain Leads While Obama Vacations (none / 0)

I graduated at the top of my class, and was voted "most adorable studmuffin". Therefore I get to say who is winning and why:

Obama is winning because his opponent is losing, is boring, is running on a record of non-attendance in the Senate, left his disabled first wife to raise the family after they waited for him to be sprung from a prison camp in VietNam - for a young girl with money, is running on a platform of "Bush's 3rd Term, is older than dirt, and whose Convention is being avoided like the plague by Republicans far and wide.

Do not question me. I have credentials.


"But not me personally were those cheers for"
by QTG on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:54:51 PM EST

Looking at all of your diaries... (none / 0)

are you one of those paid McSame bloggers? Your subjects and comments would suggest as such.


by IowaMike on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 01:25:22 PM EST

The diarist is a known McTroll. (1.00 / 1)


by Glaurung on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 01:26:57 PM EST

Re: The diarist is a known McTroll. (2.00 / 0)

Yes he is, and today he's competing to see which deadender/troll will take the gold in todays events. He does have some stiff competition though.


by venician on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 01:37:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Who reads NYT (2.00 / 0)

Only liberals who are going to vote for Obama anyways. Me, I will not get worked up over it.


by ann0nymous on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 01:39:22 PM EST

Can't Let McCain Have it Both Ways (none / 0)

McCain scored points when he criticized Obama for being too presidential during his overseas trip. According to McCain, Obama is not the president and should defer foreign policy to Bush.

However, now McCain is trying to score points by taking the lead in the Georgia crisis. We can't let McCain get away with this double standard.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:10:34 PM EST


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