MyDD :: Do you believe this?

Do you believe this?

by indydem99, Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 07:18:01 PM EST

I am shocked to see the swing state map published by Politico:

They are putting CO,FL,MO,NV,MO,OH and VA in McCain column. The have IA,MI,NH,PA,WV in our(obama's) column. That gives a total of 85 to 59 advantage to McCain that translates to a 274 to 259 McCain advantage.

RCP has:

RCP Electoral Count 228 163 147
No Toss Up States 275 263 -
Battleground States Obama McCain Spread
Colorado 45.3 45.8 McCain +0.5
Virginia 45.7 46.3 McCain +0.6
Missouri 45.0 47.3 McCain +2.3
Michigan 46.0 42.8 Obama +3.2
Ohio 45.3 46.8 McCain +1.5
Florida 45.4 47.2 McCain +1.8

To my knowledge Politico is not known to be biased against
Sen. Obama.

Is this election really this close?

Poll

Votes: 19
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: Obama, McCain (all tags)

Permalink :: 43 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Do you believe this? (2.00 / 2)

A lot of people said it then and a lot of people didn't listen. Obama losing states like PA and OH, and FL, etc. had meaning for the general.

His winning states like SD, and ND, and ID had NO meaning for the general.

This isn't going to be a cakewalk people.

by RichardFlatts on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 07:23:27 PM EST

Obama vs. McCain states (2.00 / 1)

No way WV goes Obama,
Va is probably going Obama.

Michigan will be VERY interesting to watch.

by del on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 07:39:52 PM EST

I think WV is supposed to mean (2.00 / 2)

Wisconsin.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 07:42:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I am sorry I meant WI! (none / 0)

Thanks for pointing that out.

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 07:58:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OK (2.00 / 1)

Yes way WI goes Obama :)

by del on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 10:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama will win Michigan (none / 0)

He HAS TO, and will win MI.

Virginia - right now you'd have to give McCain a slight advantage, but it's very close, and the presence of Kaine, and of Warner on the ticket - if Warner has "coat-tails," it could help swing VA to Obama.

VA, CO, and OH could go either way. If the election were held today, they would be too close for comfort.

by enthusiast on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 07:42:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

could Tom kain win VA for Obama? or (none / 0)

Do we need Warner on the ticket?

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:04:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Warner might be a good choice (none / 0)

He's popular, and he's young, consistent with the change message. He could probably help swing VA to Obama.

With Kaine as Governor, the Senate seat might remain Democratic - Kaine's term is nearly over - could Kaine run for the Senate seat if Warmer is elected VP?

Is there another Dem who could realistically win the VA Senate seat? We sort of need to take and hold the VA Senate seat.

by enthusiast on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mike Malloy (2.00 / 0)

thinks we should all make the Republicans have the White House as the Legislature is forced to clean up the mess. He may be right. at least he makes a pretty strong argument.

What's the worst case scenario anyway? That we all die?

Well, we're all gonna die anyway no matter who gets elected.

"But not me personally were those cheers for"

by QTG on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:04:27 PM EST

OMG!!! the sky is falling! (none / 0)

the sky is falling!

"I can't change things overnight, but I think I can get us on the right track." -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:08:51 PM EST

Argh!! (none / 0)

When are people going to figure out looking at summer polls for a November election is a useless game.

Next look at the gallup daily tracking. What is the highest McCain has even gotten since January '08? 45% He cannot seem to break this ceiling. This folks is not good news for the McCain camp.

This election was always going to be close. And if you are worried stop wringing your hands and get out there and work. Sign up to GOTV, canvass do what ever it takes. It's up to you, me and everyone else who doesn't want to see a McCain presidency to help insure it doesn't happen.

Now if your motive is to point out that maybe Obama is/was the wrong choice .... well you know what you can do.

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:11:21 PM EST

We have a Democratic process! (none / 0)

We have to accept the results!

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:22:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We have a Democratic process! (2.00 / 1)

Um, what?

by Cincinnatus on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:31:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If we are NOT complacent, (2.00 / 1)

NOT over-confident, we will work harder and donate more $$.

If we think Obama is ahead comfortably, we'll become complacent and over-confident (ignorantly).

by enthusiast on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:13:48 PM EST

Re: Do you believe this? (none / 0)

No because the RCP totals still have Obama leading, even with no battleground. Politico is off from their source.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

"The best way to show that a stick is crooked is not by arguing about it or spending time denouncing it, but to lay a straight stick alongside it" -DL Moody

by nextgen on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:18:03 PM EST

RCP has Obama winning Indiana, but (none / 0)

that poll is out of date, and most agree that Indiana will be a red state this year.

For example, www.fivethirtyeight.com has McCain projected to win Indiana by several points.

by enthusiast on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:21:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RCP has Obama winning Indiana, but (none / 0)

No argument really, but then the entire post is dated. The data politico uses is the same data I used from RCP.

My only point was if Obama starts with 228 at RCP and gets 59 the math politico shows does not work.

....

"The best way to show that a stick is crooked is not by arguing about it or spending time denouncing it, but to lay a straight stick alongside it" -DL Moody

by nextgen on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:31:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you believe this? (none / 0)

Just do the math yourself...228 +59

"The best way to show that a stick is crooked is not by arguing about it or spending time denouncing it, but to lay a straight stick alongside it" -DL Moody

by nextgen on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:20:45 PM EST

If you rely on old poll data from 3-4 wks ago, (none / 0)

then Obama is ahead.

But because the State polls are often weeks or months old, they are not very helpful in telling us where things are today.

There has been very little polling in Ohio and eespecially Indiana recently, so we don't really know what the hell is going on.

Right now, we can only count on 264 EVs for Obama, assuming he wins MI, NM, IA, and NH, which are still too close for comfort.

We need to win NV or IN or OH or VA or CO, and right now, none of them looks like a win - they're all tied or red.

by enthusiast on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:25:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you believe this? (2.00 / 2)

This election in my opinion is going to be really close and may be as close as 2000. IMHO i have BO at 264 EV and McCain at 265 with CO to close to call. I guess BO could win OH but with out HRC on the ticket i think that is unlikely.

I think we should all be thanking Howard Dean for putting the convention in Denver because i doubt either BO or McCain will get much of a bounce but we could get a big bounce in CO and that is the most important state in the election.

david

by giusd on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:22:52 PM EST

Re: Do you believe this? (none / 0)

I am fairly confident about our chances in Colorado, actually. All the signs are there already. If the Democrats keep up their balls and push through this compromise legislation, we should have smooth sailing. Particularly when Bush vetoes it and Obama pledges to pass it as one of his first Presidential acts.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 08:59:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you believe this? (none / 0)

OMG!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!! IT"S SO CLOSE!!!!!!!

All things considered, Obama is in very good shape right now.

I"M TOTALLY POOPING MYSELF RIGHT NOWZ!!!!!!!

I'm neither complacent, nor worried

THANKS YOU DIARIST FOR YOUR CONSTANT POSTING OF THESES ALL POWERFULLING POLLS AND OTHER MAYBE BAD OUTLOOKINGS FOR OBAMA!!!!!!!

Again with the concern diary. Do us all a favor and up your dosage of Zoloft.

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

by fogiv on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 10:42:12 PM EST

Re: Do you believe this? (none / 0)