MyDD :: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5)

Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5)

by rayj, Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:11:42 PM EST

Yes, yes. I know it's Zogby and the poll should be taken with a huge grain of salt, but it's the second poll today showing McCain leading after trailing for months. Earlier this month, Obama was sporting a 10 point lead over McCain, 46%-36%.

* McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.
* Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.
* Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
* Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.
* Obama's support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.
* Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=15 35

Tags: John McCain, Barack Obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 49 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Zogby: McCain 42, Obama 41 (2.00 / 1)

OH MY GOD WE ARE GOING TO LOOSE!!!!!!!!!! WTFOMG!!!!!! OBAMA IS THE WORSE CANIDATE EVER!!!!!! HOW IS HE NOT WINNING BY 90 POINTS??????? OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:13:34 PM EST

Re: Zogby: McCain 42, Obama 41 (2.00 / 1)

!!!!!!!!!!

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:13:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42, Obama 41 (none / 0)

Hey, I like cake.

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:14:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Burp! (none / 0)

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:04:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

up in Florida (none / 0)

Obama has advertised heavily in Lf. McCain hasn't run any ads there yet.

Food for thought.

by del on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:19:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: up in Florida (none / 0)

That should be Fl. not Lf. sorry

by del on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:19:39 PM EST
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Re: up in Florida (none / 0)

Who's "Lf?"

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:20:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: up in Florida (none / 0)

I did a correction, it is Fl. Correction above your question.

by del on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 12:19:51 AM EST
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Re: Zogby: McCain 42, Obama 41 (none / 0)

Yes, and SUSA produced an electoral sample with 43% Republican and 37% Democratic, when the state's own statistics (they register by party) show it 42% Democratic and 37% Republican. Correct that error and you have a tie in Florida.

by elrod on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:30:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42, Obama 41 (none / 0)

I believe SUSA doesn't correct for party ID. They just grab a sampling, and if they happen to get a sample that's demonstrably not representative of the state, they shrug and say oh well. It's consistent, but I'm not sold on it being accurate.

This is one of those times you have to understand that when a poll says...

Barack Obama has 46% support (MoE +/- 4%)

What that means is...

If we interviewed a perfectly random sample, then there is a 95% chance that Obama's support is between 42% and 50%. There is also a 5% chance that it is completely outside that range.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:50:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42, Obama 41 (2.00 / 2)

Right. I got it. I'm a concern troll/puma/whatever for pointing out a poll.

Get real. Pollster.com shows McCain gaining 3 points in the last week. He and the GOP have succeeded in defining Obama just like they did to John Kerry and Al Gore.

And I'm sorry that I would expect that the Democratic nominee should have more than a 2-3 advantage during the single worst political environment for the Republican Party since Watergate. During this time in 1976, Jimmy Carter was up over 30 points on Gerald Ford. Even Dukakis was up 17 over GHWB, but Obama can't pull away from a guy who has no real policy positions at all and who has run a horrible campaign. I don't get it.

by rayj on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:27:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42, Obama 41 (none / 0)

I don't get it.

Yes, we know.

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You just hit by a DKos spillover troll (none / 0)

On the other hand Gallup daily is showing Obama is leading by 3%..

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_daily _tracking_813.php

by louisprandtl on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:33:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You just hit by a DKos spillover troll (none / 0)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/8/4/15016 /00191

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:39:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You just hit by a DKos spillover troll (2.00 / 1)

Oh louis, louis, louis.

If you want to start fighting again, at least don't embarrass yourself by botching your insult lines.

You: user 33206.
Me: user 2635.

Indeed, I hear there was quite the dkos "spillover" back in 2004. Tell you what, I'll pretend you didn't even type that and give you another shot at a lame putdown. Don't blow it this time!

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:06:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh My, My!! And this comes from somebody (none / 0)

who couldn't spell Candidate? hah!

And yes singers like you at DKos whose uncalibrated voice gave me such migraine headaches that I finally had to join up DKos and MyDD instead of being a silent lurker. In 2003/4 I was busy at grassroots meetups for Dean for America. And you were signing up at MyDD and DKos? Ok..I applaud you for that..

Why don't you keep on crooning before you go back to your burrows..???

by louisprandtl on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:10:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh My, My!! And this comes from somebody (2.00 / 1)

Sigh. Now that was an epic fail.

The sad thing is, you didn't even notice the misuse of "worse" and "loose." Dang, what does that say about your spelling and grammatical abilities?

But really now, do try to keep up. I've been posting the same hysterical, misspelled, "OMG!" comments for weeks here. Or perhaps you hadn't noticed.

And you might want to try googling a username before you totally make a fool of yourself trying to ridicule it. (I'll give you a big hint--it has to do with literature! And I don't actually sing!)

Look, if you want to get all catty, please at least make a concerted effort here. Your efforts tonight have just been embarrassing.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:11:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

YAWNNNNN.....zzzzzz... (none / 0)

by louisprandtl on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:15:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: YAWNNNNN.....zzzzzz... (none / 0)

The Tale of Johnny Town- Mouse

by louisprandtl on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:45:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42, Obama 41 (none / 0)

McCain is not viewed as a typical Republican. And things are different these days. Obama is a slow-burner. But he is building the sort of ground support that can really help, and unlike McCain, he hasn't already played his trump card.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:49:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42, Obama 41 (none / 0)

Actually, rayj, the comment was parodying the usual responses to "latest poll" diaries, especially today. You didn't post any commentary with yours, so I didn't presume to know your intentions.

Of course, the woe-is-me, gloom-and-doom comment to which I'm responding kind of fleshes it out. "Obama is terrible, he's losing a one-day tracking poll, he's like Kerry, we're gonna lose, blah blah blah." Mm-hmm...that's "getting real" alright. I'd hate to see your blood pressure in October if you're already this panicked.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:12:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

I like cake.

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:14:13 PM EST

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

Would Chocolate Truffle cake be to your liking?

by Politicalslave on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:17:28 PM EST

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

Yes...drool...slobber...yes, I do.

Could you post a recipe for me?

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (2.00 / 3)

Huh, at least it isn't an Internet poll. I'm a little surprised, McCain's hits have not been particularly hard, I wouldn't think they would take such a toll. But now we have a whole series of polls showing big drops for Obama.

What happens when McCain starts using the heavy artillery? And what is going on with young people?

by souvarine on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:24:11 PM EST

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

And what is going on with young people?

Mostly, we're getting stoned...and eating Cheetos.

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (2.00 / 1)

I like Cheetos, and Doritos, and Fritos.

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

All the O's are quite tasty. The Cool Ranch Doritos don't leave my fingers Orange, so I eat those at work.

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:32:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

They're not answering pollsters, most likely. It's summer.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:42:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

It isn't McCain's "celebrity" attack, it's the racial thing and the oil drilling issue. Obama can take his lead back with this new plan. People will like hearing about a rebate for buyers of new hybrids. He just has to get that message out there.

As for race, somebody needs to sit Obama down and tell him that as rough as it gets, he's got to BELIEVE IN HIS HEART that it isn't racially motivated. Other people can play racism and Obama can just refuse to comment. But he needs to stop decrying these attacks and start attacking McCain instead.

Trust me, Obama isn't the one weak against attacks or the one who is untested.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:45:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

Well... don't trust me, really. I don't know anything, I just have two hands and a keyboard.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:46:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

I don't have any qualms about Obama's ability to hit or hit back. He is very good at knife-fighting. But I do think that McCain has neutralized many of Obama's most effective attacks. Obama's goo-goo attacks early in the primaries fell flat, and ads like "Big Oil" won't work any better in the general. The corruption message strikes me as a brain-dead attempt to woo independents.

Obama needs a better approach to define McCain. Racism accusations will only hurt Obama in the general election environment.

by souvarine on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:28:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

Easy! McCain is a shameless opportunist who has sold out his values in every possible way. Except that he was always strongly anti-abortion, anti-birth control, anti-women's rights in general.

I have long maintained that once Obama starts showing the numerous clips of McCain contradicting himself (particularly on drilling), he will completely obliterate McCain. His entire argument is that he is tested and you know where he stands. But you know what? NOBODY DOES. There's nobody that can predict what he'll do about anything, because he alternates between ruling by his gut and helping out his lobbyist friends.

Beyond that, McCain is OOOOOOOOLD. The age gimmick is by no means over, because the argument has only gotten stronger.

So there's Obama's definition. McCain's either a shameless, shapeless spud or a foggy, deteriorating puppet. Pretending that he has any real ideas at all is kind of silly.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:36:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

Huh, at least it isn't an Internet poll.

ha yea.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:35:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

any poll (none / 0)

that shows McCain getting more than 5% of AA votes is not to be trusted.

by highgrade on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:25:51 PM EST

Re: Zogby (2.00 / 1)

Lets all agree the race is getting closer but come on Zogby is by far the worse polling group. As i recall he had BO winning CA by 5%.

But lets be real this election is going to be very close and talk of a BO blowout is not only nonsense but is hurting BO with undecides.

david

by giusd on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:49:19 PM EST

More civics/stats 101 (2.00 / 1)

Really, its not that hard.

by upstate girl on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:53:20 PM EST

Re: More civics/stats 101 (2.00 / 1)

by rayj on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:55:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

I think there has been some movement in the race.

Obama is starting out the week well and McCain's folks are not, so hopefully it will be a better week.

That said, the race has a long way to go and the Obama campaign is building institutional capacity in many states, a key factor for victory.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:05:16 PM EST

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

BTW, these numbers are from July 31-August 1, when other polls had stronger numbers for Obama.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:09:08 PM EST

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

In case you haven't noticed, they're not really into bad news tonight.

Another Clintonista against John McCain

by psychodrew on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:50:29 PM EST

not exactly (2.00 / 1)

We're more into reality.

by upstate girl on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:53:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not exactly. (2.00 / 2)

It's not reality if you never remove the rose colored glasses.

Another Clintonista against John McCain

by psychodrew on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:57:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not exactly. (2.00 / 1)

Like reality TV, reality politics just wouldn't be the same without them.

by phoenixdreamz on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:04:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Confession (2.00 / 1)

I'm addicted to Big Brother and Survivor.

Another Clintonista against John McCain

by psychodrew on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:12:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (2.00 / 3)

Bring out Hillary, Baby!!!

Sic the Pitbull on them....

by nikkid on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:01:41 PM EST

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

What a mistake it was for the SuperDems to go against HRC's late momentum and hand the nomination to the guy who peaked in February. An old-fashioned contested convention is just what we need right now. Or else what the hell are they for? Do we want the strongest candidate or not? Even Jerome knows he is the weakest nominee since Dukakis. It's not too late......

by BlueDoggyDogg on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:42:55 PM EST

Re: Zogby: McCain 42 (+6), Obama 41 (-5) (none / 0)

"Even Jerome"? That's been Jerome's line since last year. In fact, since Hillary lost he seems to have lost all interest in politics altogether.

I'm voting for Saxby Chambliss!

by Jess81 on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 03:52:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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